Election 2024: Forecast for Colorado’s State Legislative Races
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Election 2024: Forecast for Colorado’s State Legislative Races

Brownstein Client Alert, Oct. 24, 2024

With the 2024 election only two weeks away and most Colorado voters already having their ballots in hand, a flurry of federal, state and local candidate and ballot measure races are vying for attention. Here, we preview all of the Colorado general election state legislative races, which don’t always receive the same level of media coverage as federal and statewide offices but are still an important barometer for state policy.

Only a handful of districts are competitive, so we break out the races into four groups: competitive seats, potentially competitive seats, safe open seats and safe incumbent seats. The competitive and potentially competitive seats have been identified as such by The Colorado Sun, although as a cautionary note, anything can happen during elections—even in so-called “safe” seats.

 

COMPETITIVE SEATS

  • House District 16 (El Paso): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Stephanie Vigil vs. Republican Rebecca Keltie

    Vigil won in 2022 by 710 votes, or 2 percentage points, in a district estimated to lean 3 percentage points in the GOP’s favor.
  • House District 19 (Boulder, Weld): Democrat Jillaire McMillan vs. Republican Dan Woog

    Parenti withdrew from the race, citing the prevalence of “personal agendas and special interests” in the legislature. A vacancy committee chose Jillaire McMillan as Parenti’s replacement to face Woog. In 2022, Parenti beat Woog (who was then an incumbent) by 1,467 votes, or 3 percentage points, in a district estimated to lean 1.5 percentage points in the GOP’s favor.
  • House District 25 (Jefferson): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Tammy Story vs. Republican George Mumma

    In 2022, Story won by 729 votes, or about 1 percentage point, in a district estimated to lean 2 percentage points in the GOP’s favor.
  • House District 43 (Douglas): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Bob Marshall vs. Republican Matt Burcham

    Marshall won by 405 votes in 2022, or less than a percentage point, in a district estimated to lean 7 percentage points in the GOP’s favor. This district was the most Republican-leaning seat won by Democrats in 2022. As a result, it’s a top target for the GOP this go-around.
  • House District 50 (Weld): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Mary Young vs. Republican Ryan Gonzalez

    Young beat Gonzalez in 2022 by 330 votes, or 2 percentage points, in a district estimated to lean 6 percentage points in Democrats’ favor. The vote margin Young won by in 2022 was the smallest among all legislative races, leading Republicans to focus their efforts on ousting her in November.
  • House District 61 (Arapahoe, Douglas): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Eliza Hamrick is running unopposed.

    This was anticipated to be a competitive race. Hamrick won the district in 2022 by about 1,000 votes, or nearly 3 percentage points. The district is estimated to lean less than a percentage point in Democrats’ favor. However, the Republican nominee was disqualified so Hamrick is running unopposed.
  • Senate District 5 (Delta, Eagle, Garfield, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Montrose, Pitkin): Republican Rep. Marc Catlin vs. Cole Buerger

    This is Republican Sen. Perry Will’s seat. Will is retiring from the legislature and running for county commissioner. The district is estimated to lean 3 percentage points in the GOP’s favor.
  • Senate District 6 (Alamosa, Archuleta, Conejos, Costilla, Dolores, La Plata, Mineral, Montezuma, Montrose, Ouray, Rio Grande, Saguache, San Juan, San Miguel): Incumbent Republican Sen. Cleave Simpson vs. Democrat Vivian Smotherman

    This district is estimated to lean 1 percentage point in Democrats’ favor.
  • Senate District 12 (El Paso): Democrat Rep. Marc Snyder vs. Republican Stan VaderWerf

    This district is estimated to lean 2 percentage points in Republicans’ favor. The district is currently represented by Republican Sen. Bob Gardner, who is term limited.
  • Senate District 13 (Adams, Weld): Republican Scott Bright vs. Democrat Matt Johnston

    This district is estimated to lean 4 percentage points in Republicans’ favor and is currently represented by Democrat Sen. Kevin Priola, who is term limited. When Priola was elected to represent the district, he was registered as a Republican.
  • Senate District 16 (Arapahoe): Incumbent Democrat Sen. Chris Kolker vs. Republican Robyn Carnes

    This district is a true toss-up. Neither party has an advantage in the district, according to The Colorado Sun’s nonpartisan analysis of past election results.

 

POTENTIALLY COMPETITIVE SEATS

  • House District 18 (El Paso, Teller): Democrat Amy Paschal vs. Republican James Boelens

    This is Democrat Rep. Marc Snyder’s current House district. The district is estimated to lean just 0.3 percentage points in Democrats’ favor, but Snyder won it in 2022 by more than 3,000 votes and roughly 9 percentage points.
  • House District 26 (Eagle, Moffat, Rio Blanco, Routt): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Meghan Lukens vs. Republican Nathan Butler

    Lukens won the district in 2022 by about 3,000 votes, or about 7 percentage points. The district is estimated to lean 3 percentage points in Democrats’ favor.
  • House District 28 (Jefferson): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Sheila Lieder vs. Republican Peter Boddie

    Lieder won the district in 2022 by more than 2,000 votes, or roughly 5 percentage points. The district is estimated to lean 2 percentage points in Democrats’ favor.
  • House District 38 (Arapahoe, Jefferson): Democrat Gretchen Rydin vs. Republican Jeffrey Patty

    This district is currently represented by Democrat Rep. David Ortiz, who is retiring from the legislature. Ortiz won in 2022 by more than 5,000 votes, or about 11 percentage points.
  • House District 46 (Pueblo): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Tisha Mauro vs. Republican Kimberly Swearingen

    Mauro won in 2022 by about 3,000 votes, or about 8 percentage points. The district is estimated to lean 7 percentage points in Democrats’ favor.
  • House District 59 (Archuleta, La Plata, Montezuma, San Juan): Democrat Katie Stewart vs. Republican Clark Craig

    This is Democrat Rep. Barbara McLachlan’s seat. McLachlan is term limited. She won in 2022 by more than 6,000 votes, or nearly 14 percentage points, though the district is estimated to lean just 2 percentage points in Democrats’ favor.
  • Senate District 19 (Jefferson): Democrat Rep. Lindsey Daugherty vs. Republican Sam Bandimere

    This is Democrat Sen. Rachel Zenzinger’s seat. She is term limited and running for county commissioner. The district is estimated to lean 9 percentage points in Democrats’ favor.

 

SAFE OPEN SEATS

  • House District 4 (Denver): Democrat Cecilia Espenoza vs. Republican Jack Daus

    This is Democrat Rep. Tim Hernandez’s seat. Espenoza defeated Hernandez in the primary.
  • House District 6 (Denver): Democrat Sean Camacho vs. Republican Kyle Whitter

    This is Democrat Rep. Elizabeth Epps’s seat. Camacho defeated Epps in the primary.
  • House District 8 (Denver): Democrat Lindsay Gilchrist vs. Republican Philip Borrelli

    This is Democrat Rep. Leslie Herod’s seat. Herod is term limited.
  • House District 20 (El Paso): Republican Jarvis Caldwell vs. Democrat Arik Daugherty

    This is Republican Rep. Don Wilson’s seat. Wilson is retiring from the legislature and running for county commissioner.
  • House District 24 (Adams, Jefferson): Democrat Lisa Feret vs. Republican Gwen Henderson

    This is Democrat Rep. Lindsey Daugherty’s seat. Daugherty is running for the state Senate.
  • House District 30 (Jefferson): Democrat Rebekah Stewart vs. Republican Ramey Johnson

This is Democrat Rep. Chris deGruy Kennedy’s seat. DeGruy Kennedy is term limited. Stewart defeated Kyra deGruy Kennedy in the primary.

  • House District 31 (Adams): Democrat Jacque Phillips vs. Republican Heidi Pitchforth vs. Lawrence Olguin (unaffiliated)

This is Democrat Rep. Julia Marvin’s seat. Phillips defeated Marvin in the primary.

  • House District 36 (Adams, Arapahoe): Democrat Michael Carter vs. Colorado Forward Party member Eric Mulder

    This is Democrat Rep. Mike Weissman’s seat. Weissman is running for the state Senate.
  • House District 45 (Douglas): Republican Max Brooks vs. Democrat Chad Cox

This is Republican Rep. Lisa Frizell’s seat. Frizell is running for the state Senate.

  • House District 48 (Adams, Weld): Republican Carlos Barron is unopposed.

This is Republican Rep. Gabe Evans’s seat. Evans is running for Congress.

  • House District 49 (Boulder): Democrat Lesley Smith vs. Republican Steve Ferrante

This is Democrat Rep. Judy Ambile’s seat. Amabile is running for the state Senate.

  • House District 52 (Larimer): Democrat Yara Zokaie vs. Reece Mollenhoff (unaffiliated) vs. Colorado Center Party member Steve Urash

This is Democrat Rep. Cathy Kipp’s seat. Kipp is running for the state Senate.

  • House District 56 (Adams, Arapahoe, Cheyenne, Elbert, El Paso, Kit Carson, Lincoln): Republican Chris Richardson vs. Democrat Alessandra Navetta

This is Republican Rep. Rod Bockenfeld’s seat. Bockenfeld is retiring from the legislature.

  • House District 58 (Delta, Delores, Gunnison, Hindsdale, Montezuma, Montrose, Ouray, San Miguel): Republican Larry Suckla vs. Democrat Kathleen Curry

This is Republican Rep. Marc Catlin’s seat. Catlin is running for the state Senate. Curry previously served in the legislature and Sukla is a sitting county commissioner. This race has the potential to be competitive.

  • House District 63 (Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Weld, Yuma): Republican Dusty Johnson is unopposed.

This is Republican Rep. Richard Holtorf’s seat. Holtorf is retiring from the legislature and ran for Congress.

  • House District 65 (Larimer): Republican Lori Garcia Sander vs. Democrat Will Walters

This is Republican Rep. Mike Lynch’s seat. Lynch is retiring from the legislature and ran for Congress.

  • Senate District 2 (Douglas): Republican Rep. Lisa Frizell vs. Democrat Jennifer Brady

This is Republican Sen. Jim Smallwood’s seat. Smallwood is term limited.

  • Senate District 14 (Larimer): Democrat Rep. Cathy Kipp vs. Republican Pheobe McWIlliams

This is Democrat Sen. Joann Ginal’s seat. Ginal is term limited.

  • Senate District 18 (Boulder): Democrat Rep. Judy Amabile is unopposed

This is Democrat Senate President Steve Fenberg’s seat. Fenberg is term limited.

  • Senate District 28 (Adams, Arapahoe): Democrat Rep. Mike Weissman vs. Republican Pedro Espinoza

This is Democrat Sen. Rhonda Fields’s seat. Fields is term limited.

 

SAFE INCUMBENT SEATS

  • House District 1 (Denver): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Javier Mabrey vs. Republican Barbara DeHaan
  • House District 2 (Denver): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Steven Woodrow vs. Republican Michael DiManna vs. Libertarian James Swanson
  • House District 3 (Arapahoe, Denver): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Meg Froelich vs. Republican Michaela Neal vs. Libertarian Clayton Casciato vs. Marla Fernandez, who is unaffiliated
  • House District 5 (Denver): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Alex Valdez vs. Republican Johnnie Johnson
  • House District 7 (Denver): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Jennifer Bacon vs. Republican Tom Swift
  • House District 9 (Denver): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Emily Sirota vs. Republican Tom Cowhick
  • House District 10 (Boulder): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Junie Joseph vs. Republican William DeOreo
  • House District 11 (Boulder): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Karen McCormick vs. Republican Kathy Reeves
  • House District 12 (Boulder, Broomfield): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Kyle Brown vs. Republican Mark Milliman
  • House District 13 (Chaffee, Grand, Jackson, Lake, Park, Summit): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Julie McCluskie vs. Republican Dave Williams
  • House District 14 (El Paso): Incumbent Republican Rep. Rose Pugliese vs. Democrat Kathrine Gayle
  • House District 15 (El Paso): Incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Bottoms vs. Democrat Jeff Livingston
  • House District 17 (El Paso): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Regina English vs. Republican Elizabeth Riggs
  • House District 21 (El Paso): Incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Bradfield vs. Democrat Liz Rosenbaum
  • House District 22 (El Paso): Incumbent Republican Rep. Ken DeGraaf vs. Democrat Michael Pierson vs. Daniel Campana (unaffiliated)
  • House District 23 (Jefferson): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Monica Duran is unopposed
  • House District 27 (Jefferson): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Brianna Titone vs. Republican Ed Cox
  • House District 29 (Adams, Jefferson): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Shannon Bird vs. Republican Evan Hunt
  • House District 32 (Adams): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Manny Rutinel is unopposed
  • House District 33 (Broomfield, Adams, Weld): Incumbent Democrat Rep. William Lindstedt vs. Republican Michael Martinez
  • House District 34 (Adams): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Jenny Wilford vs. Republican Craig Sullivan vs. Mark Bromley (unaffiliated)
  • House District 35 (Adams, Jefferson): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Lorena Garcia vs. Republican Lee Knoll
  • House District 37 (Arapahoe): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Chad Clifford vs. Republican Danny Moore
  • House District 39 (Douglas): Incumbent Republican Rep. Brandi Bradley vs. Democrat Eric Brody
  • House District 40 (Arapahoe): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Naquetta Ricks vs. Republican Daryl Gibbs
  • House District 41 (Arapahoe): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Iman Jodeh vs. Republican Rob McKenna
  • House District 42 (Arapahoe): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Mandy Lindsay is unopposed.
  • House District 44 (Douglas): Incumbent Republican Rep. Anthony Hartsook vs. Democrat Alyssa Nilemo
  • House District 47 (Baca, Bent, Crowley, Huerfano, Kiowa, Las Animas, Otero, Prowers, Pueblo): Incumbent Republican Rep. Ty Winter vs. Democrat Elizabeth Bulthis
  • House District 51 (Larimer): Incumbent Republican Rep. Ron Weinberg vs. Democrat Sarah McKeen
  • House District 53 (Larimer): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Andy Boesenecker vs. Republican Donna Walter and Jeff Birdsall, who is unaffiliated
  • House District 54 (Mesa, Delta): Incumbent Republican Rep. Matt Soper is unopposed
  • House District 55 (Mesa): Incumbent Republican Rep. Rick Taggart is unopposed
  • House District 57 (Eagle, Garfield, Pitkin): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Elizabeth Velasco vs. Republican Caleb Waller
  • House District 60 (Chafee, Custer, Fremont, Pueblo, Teller): Incumbent Republican Rep. Stephanie Luck vs. Democrat Kathryn Green
  • House District 62 (Alamosa, Conejos, Costilla, Huerfano, Mineral, Pueblo, Rio Grande, Saguache): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Matthey Martinez vs. Republican Carol Riggenbach
  • House District 64 (Larimer, Weld): Incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Armagost vs. Democrat Mark Matthews
  • Senate District 10 (El Paso): Incumbent Republican Sen. Larry Liston vs. Libertarian John Hjersman
  • Senate District 17 (Boulder): Incumbent Democrat Sen. Sonya Jaquez Lewis vs. Republican Tom Van Lone
  • Senate District 21 (Adams, Arapahoe): Incumbent Democrat Rep. Dafna Michaelson Jenet vs. Republican Frederick Alfred
  • Senate District 23 (Larimer, Weld): Incumbent Republican Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer is unopposed
  • Senate District 26 (Arapahoe, Denver, Jefferson): Incumbent Democrat Sen. Jeff Bridges vs. Republican Bob Lane
  • Senate District 29 (Arapahoe): Incumbent Democrat Sen. Janet Buckner is unopposed
  • Senate District 31 (Denver): Incumbent Democrat Sen. Chris Hansen is unopposed
  • Senate District 33 (Denver): Incumbent Democrat Sen. James Coleman vs. Republican Max Minnig

This document is intended to provide you with general information regarding Colorado's state legislative Races. The contents of this document are not intended to provide specific legal advice. If you have any questions about the contents of this document or if you need legal advice as to an issue, please contact the attorneys listed or your regular Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP attorney. This communication may be considered advertising in some jurisdictions. The information in this article is accurate as of the publication date. Because the law in this area is changing rapidly, and insights are not automatically updated, continued accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

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